EU-China Monthly Report: October 2020
INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the Monthly EU-China Report!
September was an intense month in EU-China relations. We got to observe a mildly reassuring EU-China videoconference between EU leaders and Xi Jinping, the further consolidation of EU unity on China during the Special European Council’s Summit, increased diplomatic exchanges with China and the US - such as European tours of Wang Yi, Yang Jiechi, Mike Pompeo - and finally the intensification of debate about the EU’s Taiwan policy.
The overall outlook seems to be quite negative for China. There is a growing agreement among the member states for a need of a more assertive and united European policy towards China. In this context, it is notable that Germany appears to also be increasingly supportive of such a line as shown by comments from Chancellor Merkel and preparations of new 5G regulations that are unfavorable to Huawei.
Importantly, this assertive stance stems from both “promise fatigue” based to a large extent on the prolonged CAI negotiations and from the growing concern of multiple European actors about issues linked to “systemic rivalry” such as mistreatment of minorities in China or lack of adherence to the rule of law. It is unlikely that China will make considerable moves to address the European concerns on either of the issues, which seems to be locking relations on divergent trajectories, despite the potential boost in engagement over cooperation on climate policies following China’s announcement of carbon neutrality goals.
It is then perhaps not surprising that the EU is increasingly clear about the fact that it regards its ties with Washington as much closer than those connecting to Beijing. However, the “Sinatra Doctrine” remains at the core of Brussels’ strategic thinking about its global position amid the escalating tensions between the US and China and the EU is adamant about its plans to enhance its own Strategic Autonomy.
We hope that you will enjoy this report and encourage you to share it with your network.
Enjoy and stay safe!
Grzegorz Stec
Founder of EU-China Hub